Ngày 4/5/2018, vào lúc 13h00 tại Lecture Hall - Viện John von Neumann sẽ diễn ra một buổi Seminar khoa học đến từ TS. Brett Houlding, Giảng viên khoa Thống kê (Statistics), trường Khoa học máy tính và Thống kê, thuộc trường Trinity College Dublin (Ireland).
Topic: On the use of Statistics in Law and Policy making, with Considerations on the UK re-arrest hazard data analysis
Speaker: Brett Houlding (Trinity College Dublin) - https://www.scss.tcd.ie/Brett.Houlding/Home.html
Date & Time: 13:00 - 14:30, Friday 04 May 2018
Venue: Lecture Hall, John von Neumann Institute
In this talk I discuss how statistics has been used in the assessment of legal and policy decision making, focusing on a recent case study concerning DNA retention within the UK for those arrested but where no further action is taken. In particular, the offence risk posed by individuals who are arrested, but where subsequently no charge or caution is administered, had been used as an argument for justifying the retention of such individuals' DNA and identification profiles. Instead I consider the UK Home Office arrest-to-arrest data analysis to find it has limited use in indicating risk of future offence. In doing so, I consider the appropriateness of the statistical methodology employed and the implicit assumptions necessary for making such inference concerning the rearrest risk of a further individual. Additionally, an alternative model is proposed that would provide an equally accurate fit to the data, but which would appear to have sounder theoretical justification and suggest alternative policy direction.